Understanding The Odds:
Trading The Opening Gap in the Mini Index Futures Contract
 By Bob Hunt
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There are no hard-and-fast rules that determine one gap a Breakaway and another Common, but a few general guidelines can be used to help differentiate between the two. The fist is time-based. If the opening price on a gap to the upside stands as the low after the first 30 minutes of trading, the gap will most likely be of the Breakaway kind. And, on a downside gap, if the open remains the highest price traded within the first 30 minutes, there is a high likelihood that the gap is of a Breakaway nature. Another consideration is the magnitude of the gap. An opening gap level that falls below the levels noted below can generally be regarded as Common. Gap levels that are greater than the ones noted below can be thought of as Breakaway. If a gap level falls between the two we can think of it as having an equal chance to develop as either Common or Breakaway. Remember that these levels are to be used only as a very rough rule-of-thumb. They are relevant at the time of publication, but may vary to some degree with changing market conditions.
| Gap Size Guidelines | |
| Market |  | Common |  | Breakaway |
| S&P; 500 E-Mini (ES) | | < 4.00 points | | > 7.00 points |
| Dow Jones Mini (YM) | | < 40 points | | > 70 points |
| Nasdaq 100 E-Mini (NQ) | | < 10.00 points | | > 18.00 points |
| Russell 2000 E-Mini(ER) | | < 2.00 points | | > 3.50 points |
A third method used to differentiate between the two is based on NYSE Tick readings. The Tick is provided by most intraday day data providers and represents, at any given moment, the number of stocks trading higher on the NYSE minus the number of stocks trading lower. A positive reading is bullish, as it represents a greater number of issues increasing in price, whereas a negative reading is bearish. An opening gap to the upside that cannot exceed a NYSE tick reading of +300 within the fist few minutes of trading is generally considered to be of a Common nature. On the other hand, an upside gap that occurs on a tick reading greater than +300 and climbs as price climbs can usually be regarded as Breakaway. Alternately, a downside gap that does not drop below -300 within the fist few minutes can be considered Common, while one that occurs on a tick reading below -300 and drops as price drops can be considered Breakaway. Again, it is emphasized that these parameters are best regarded only as a rough rule-of-thumb, and should not be used in mechanical fashion. Think of them simply as extra bits of information that assist in interpreting internal market dynamics.
In addition to the guidelines mentioned above, there are a few other market variables that we want to take into account before the start of the trading day. These considerations aid in determining the likely nature of trading activity in the early hours, and helps us to decide whether the opening gap (if one exists) is likely to be tradable. First off is a review of Trin (sometimes called the Arms Index in honor of its developer, Richard Arms). This is a breadth oscillator designed to measure internal market strength, and is most often provided as part of a real-time datafeed. Although a modified version of Trin is preferred in that it delivers more detailed information and is far easier to read (which is especially important during fast-paced, hectic trading conditions), the levels noted here reflect the standard Trin, which will be more easily accessible for most readers. A closing prior day Trin reading near or above 2.0 tells us that the day ended on an excessively bearish tone. If overnight pricing has not already swung to the upside, we can usually expect it to do so in the very early part of the trading day. Once this excessive bearish pressure is released, further downside typically follows. On the other hand, if prior day Trin finished near or lower than .5, we know that the day ended with excessive bullishness. A push lower should occur either in overnight trading or early the next day. Once market tone is effectively neutralized further upside normally ensues.
Just before market open it is also a good idea to mark on our intraday chart the price high and low points that occurred in overnight trading (all trading activity that occurred since the prior day close). If market activity is thought of as an auction process, where bidders and sellers are constantly vying for the most advantageous price, overnight highs and lows represent the outer extremes of accepted value for that particular period of time. The highest price achieved represents the maximum that buyers were willing to offer, and the lowest price represents the minimum that sellers were willing to accept. For this reason, subsequent price action has a tendency to remain within the boundaries of apparent value as defined during this period. If these limits are exceeded to the upside, we know that current market activity has a bullish tone to it. On the other hand, any downside push that surpasses the overnight low has bearish implications.
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This article was originally written as a chapter for the book Tricks Of The Active Trader. It describes just one of the many high probability trading setups included as part of the Pattern Trapper ADVANCED Short Term Trading Strategies Program. Click Here! for more information.
To view the 8 minute video presentation on the Open Gap Trading Technique recently made at the Dallas chapter meeting of AFTA, click on the link below. Be patient - the file may take 5-10 minutes to fully download. For multiple viewings save the file to your hard drive, then double click to start. Click Here!
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