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The Pattern Trapper Blog

High Probability Trading for Futures, Forex, Stocks, and ETFs.

Follow-Up to March Silver Trading for Friday, November 30

The Pattern Trapper Market Update Blog is a companion piece to the FREE! Daily Pattern Signals Report.

For maximum benefit be sure to check out the On-Line Course.


I received a few e-mails asking me to critique what had gone "wrong" with the directional implication of Friday's March Silver Market Report, so I thought I would write a few short paragraphs about market expectations and developing a trading plan based on those expectations, using Friday's Report as an example. The trading concepts discussed below are a critical component of the Pattern Trapper On-Line Course. Please review the course description area for more detail. Click Here!


In a nutshell, experienced traders approach market expectations not in terms of being "right" or "wrong", but, rather, as a way of understanding where the odds lie, and developing a trading plan based on those odds. In regards to Friday's Report, Pattern Signal firings told us that the odds favored higher prices in March Silver. We were never triggered into that long because the prior day 34.490 level mentioned in that report was never breached. Instead, we had a test and failure of that level, which suggested that the odds were shifting to the downside. Price hovered around the 34.177 Daily Pivot for a while, but then broke down in quick fashion, telling us to get on the short side.


No one is going to be able to offer you a crystal ball for your trading. The best that a trader can do is to educate yourself so that you know how to interpret where the odds lie, and then develop a trading plan based on those odds, and also a contingency plan in case those odds don't play out as expected. Pattern Signal firings have some very high odds for follow-through. But when those odds don't develop as expected, the market is often telling us that it is about to do the opposite. Traders need to understand that, stay flexible, and LISTEN to what the market is trying to tell you.


Often, when Pattern Signal firings demonstrate high odds for a particular directional move, the market's inability to follow-through on that move by breaking a significant level of support or resistance is signaling that it is setting up to do the exact opposite. (i.e., in the case of Silver our significance level of resistance was that along the 34.490 level of the prior day high, which again, was never breached).


Please refer to the chart below for a review of the way the day developed, and how our expectations changed based on what the market was telling us. Again, for further details on how to develop such an approach to trading, please refer to the Pattern Trapper On-Line Course. Mention this post when ordering by phone and get a 20% discount.


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March Silver Trading for Friday, November 30
Lean Hogs Trading for Tuesday, December 4


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